Posted on Fri, Apr. 15, 2005

Census estimates show surge in Ohio's once-rural counties

By David Knox

Beacon Journal staff writer

Suburban sprawl in Ohio continues to spill across county lines as urban dwellers find new homes in neighboring, once-rural counties, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

New population estimates released Thursday show that Ohio's fastest-growing counties are all suburbs of the state's three largest cities.

Medina County south of Cleveland ranked fourth among the state's 88 counties, increasing 9.3 percent in population from the last census, in April 2000, to July 2004.

Top-ranked Delaware County the northern neighbor of Columbus, the state's largest city grew by nearly 30 percent. Cincinnati's suburb of Warren County ranked second, growing more than 19 percent. Delaware and Warren were among the 100 fastest-growing counties in the nation, according to the Census Bureau.

Filling out the top five were two other suburban Columbus counties: Fairfield and Union.

The ranking of the top four counties has been the same every year since the 2000 census.

Feeding the growth of these suburban counties are steady population losses in many of Ohio's largest urban counties.

Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Hamilton (Cincinnati), Montgomery (Dayton), Lucas (Toledo) and Mahoning (Youngstown) counties all showed declines, according to the report. Of the state's 10 largest counties, only Franklin (Columbus), Summit, Stark, Butler and Lorain posted increases.

Stark County's showing was welcomed by local officials who complained loudly last year that the Census Bureau badly underestimated the population of Jackson, Lake, Plain and Perry townships.

``I think it paints a much more realistic picture of what's happening in Stark County,'' said Jeff Dotson of the county Planning Commission.

Dotson said that shortly after last year's report was released, Jackson Township filed a formal challenge that resulted in a 6.3 percent increase in the population estimate, from 37,213 to 39,558.

``We correct those mistakes as soon as we can,'' said Katherine M. Condon, a Census Bureau demographer. She said the estimate was revised after local officials submitted additional building permits documenting new housing growth.

Steve Kelley, senior economist with the Ohio Department of Development, said the mistake underscores the importance ``for local communities to provide information'' during the annual surveys done by his department, in partnership with the Census Bureau.

``Filling out these surveys is a task that's often overlooked,'' Kelley said.

Ohio's suburban sprawl growth pattern mirrors the national trend.

Four of the 10 fastest-growing counties in America are Atlanta's suburbs. That rapid growth helped Georgia climb a notch among the 50 states passing New Jersey to become the nation's ninth most populous state with an estimated 8.8 million residents.

Ohio, with a population of 11.45 million, retained its ranking as the seventh largest state. It continues to lag badly in growth.

The Buckeye State's population increased by a paltry 105,871, or 0.9 percent, since April 2000, ranking Ohio 48th among the 50 states. The only states doing worse were West Virginia and North Dakota.

Unless that trend changes in the last half of the decade, Ohio stands to lose two more seats and political clout when the 435 U.S. House seats are divvied up after the 2010 census, according to a Beacon Journal analysis based on census estimates.

After the 2000 census, the U.S. House delegation from Ohio was cut from 19 to 18 representatives, eliminating the district seat held by Akron Democrat Tom Sawyer.

The new census estimates showed the South displaying the strongest growth. Of the 100 fastest-growing counties between 2003 and 2004, 60 were in the South, 23 in the West and 17 in the Midwest. None was in the Northeast.

While southern and western states have shown dramatic growth for decades, Ohio isn't even keeping up with most of the Great Lakes states. Wisconsin, Indiana and Illinois are growing at least twice as fast as Ohio.